The North Korean nuclear problem and possible scenarios of its development
The events on the Korean Peninsula are analysed in the context of highlighting the security interests and policies of the key regional states of Northeast Asia (USA, China, the Russian Federation, and Japan) regarding the settlement of the North Korean nuclear missile program, which remains a problem at the regional, international, and global levels.
The evolution of the North Korean policy of the states involved in the Korean problem from the 1990s to the present is traced; different approaches to solving this issue are highlighted (diplomatic – negotiations of various formats, summit diplomacy, sanctions policy, deterrence and pressure policy, (combination of elements of diplomacy, sanctions, pressure, etc.). Peculiarities of the interaction of key states with North Korea and inter-Korean relations are outlined. New approaches to solving the problem in connection with the coming to power of the Joe Biden administration in the United States and the new administration in the Republic of Korea.
Having analysed the policy of key regional countries regarding the North Korean settlement, important events, expert opinions on this issue, main documents and statements of the political establishment, an attempt was made to forecast: the main possible scenarios for solving the nuclear and missile problem of the DPRK and prospects for the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula are outlined, taking into account foreign policy factors. It has been found that the complete denuclearization of North Korea is not possible today, and therefore an urgent task for the participating countries is to direct efforts to reduce the nuclear missile threat and reduce the existing level of tension.
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